Our guest speaker last week was Greg Vogel, Founder of Land Advisors.  Mr. Vogel shared with us a comprehensive deck of statistics regarding the Valley commercial and residential real estate markets.  He explained that the recent rapid rise in interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve Bank's efforts to fight historically high inflation, have caused a dramatic slowdown in real estate activity.  He also pointed out there are currently virtually no new deals being done for multifamily residential as investors try to digest the cost of higher rates against falling rents. Last year home builders experienced a 70% contract cancellation rate during 2022, which eclipsed the 30% cancellation rate during the 2008 recession. Builders have now begun to offer incentives to clear their unsold inventory and after that has been completed he expects the list price of new homes to go down.   He said that while our market in the long term is healthy and destined for growth, the unprecedented rise in home values and rents in 2021, was based on artificial market stimulation and interest rates which made borrowing very attractive to homeowners and investors.  With rates rising to more realistic levels, we should expect to see an over all reduction in housing values of 20-25% over the next year, returning us to a level higher than 2020, but moderating the 40% rise in 2021.  On the commercial side, he said that he expects demand for industrial product will continue to grow as users exit a California market which has become unaffordable, highly taxed and over regulated, to a market which is more business friendly, affordable for employees and has the land and infrastructure to meet their needs. Mr. Vogel's power point presentation can be downloaded by clicking HERE. 

 

Brigadier General George J. Cannelos

 

We welcomed our newest member, George Cannelos.  George and his wife Mary Lu were introduced by Mary Ann Paul.  George and Mary Lu lived in Anchorage, where they met, for over 20 years. George was active in local government planning and served as Assistant Adjutant General and Commander of the Alaska Air National Guard.  George also flew 75 reconnaissance missions in Vietnam and Laos as a naval Flight officer in the RA-5C Vigilante aircraft.  Mary Lu and George have lived in Verrado full time for about a decade.  George was previously a 9 year member of the Anchorage Rotary Club.  We look forward to getting to know George and Mary Lu!  WELCOME!

 

 

About 30 Rotarians, their partners and friends attended last week's social. If you were unable to attend we missed you but there will be a social coming up every month. Holly will post details as they become available.  Thanks to Holly Nott and Trish Hosking for organizing this fun event.